Roth Regatta

If you are handicapping horse races for profit or betting on the races to make money, you know just how difficult the game can be. There are many factors that go into the recipe for successfully picking winners. Some of those factors, such as speed, weight, distance, purse money, are tangible, meaning you can measure them and quantify them.

Even though they are right in front of you and can easily be compared, the tangible factors are still hard to use because you also have to weight them. Th

at means you have to decide how important each one of them is in the particular race that you are handicapping. That takes experience.

Even though using the tangible factors is difficult, the intangibles are even harder. They are the ones that test your intuition and memory. One of the biggest factors or perhaps even the most important factor in horse racing is the trainer, jockey, and owner. Their intent makes all the difference. In other words, what do they want the horse to do in the race?

Many horses that are in a race are not meant to win the race. So how can you profitably handicap and bet on horses without knowing if the horse will even be given a chance to win by the people controlling it? If the jockey won’t let the horse win, or won’t try with it, it won’t win. He or she may have orders from the trainer not to win or not to try too hard. Is that cheating? Yes and no.

Many trainers want to condition a horse and use the races to do so. A typical instruction to a jockey

might be, “Go ahead and get her out good and see what she will do early, but if you’re not close, don’t use her too hard. I think she may still be a little short.” Is that cheating? No, it is good training and horsemanship because the trainer figures his horse isn’t quite good enough just yet to win and may need this race for conditioning.

One of the best ways to understand trainer intent is to keep notes. Here is what you are looking for. Some owners like to bet on their horses and to cash big tickets. Betting stables, as they are called, often make a profit by betting on or against their own horses. If you keep track of owners and trainers, you may notice a pattern. Certain ones horses will usually only win when they are over 5-1. If their horse is a big favorite, it will often lose. If you can identify a betting stable or two, then follow the money, you will be able to make money just like they do.

The same is true of jockeys. There are a few jockeys that I will avoid and in fact, won’t even play a race that they are involved in. They seem to lose on horses that seem to be the best and do so with regularity. On the other hand, when they are on a horse at longer odds the horse may suddenly improve. It doesn’t happen enough to make it profitable to bet them all the time and therefore, I just avoid them.

The best way to understand trainer and jockey intention is to follow the connections at your local track and to get a feel for how and when they like to win. Then watch the money. In the end, it is all about the money for the betting stables. The first question you ask yourself when handicapping a race is, “Is this horse going to be sent for the win today?” If you can answer that question you have a very good chance of picking winners and making money from your wagering. If not, then you have more detective work to do.