Roth Pond Regatta

Handicapping harness races is a matter of determining how each horse will perform based upon past performances and projected times and pace.  The introduction of speed figures has helped some handicappers while others still rely on raw times and quarter fractions.  Shippers pose a particularly thorny problem because we are forced to use their performances from another track to try to determine how they will do on a new surface and oval.

Speed figures, while not perfect, are adjusted for surfa

ce condition, variants, post position, and the track itself.  It is possible to compare a horse shipping from another track because the times are adjusted accordingly.  We used to have to get our lists of tracks out and figure if one track was faster or slower than another. Some people are still using that method.

Picking winners is no more profitable, however, because everyone has access to those speed figures.  Also, like all human inventions, speed figures aren’t perfect.  Not only that

, but though Standardbred horses are very reliable and consistent, they don’t always adapt to a new track as well and may not perform well on the new surface.

So how can you use times or speed figures and make a profit betting on harness races?  First of all, do not take a short price on any shipper.  I don’t care how good the horse looks on paper, if it hasn’t proven what it can do on today’s track and surface, be skeptical and demand a good price or skip the race.

Secondly, if you can

watch the horse work over the track, then by all means, do it.  If not, watch it carefully while it scores before the race.  Look for smooth action and see how well it handles the turns, particularly on a half mile or five eighths mile track.

Finally, don’t ever bet on a race where you are comparing one shipper to another unless you get a very good price.  Talk about comparing apples and oranges!  A race with one shipper is tough enough but a race with two shippers who appear to be contenders is chaos.